Money and Politics

A few months back I made a bet with Dan. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, I get $200. If either the Democratic or Republican nominations go to someone who wasn't in the top 30 at the time the bet was made, Dan gets $200.

Please note, I intended to express no political opinion whatsoever in this bet, except a belief that online betting markets are the best way to predict the future. (At least when they have enough traffic.) At the time, Obama was running around 20%, and "field" was at 1 or 2 percent for both parties' nominations. I felt pretty confident.

But the tide may have halfway turned! Fred Thompson, the DA from Law and Order (!!!) (and actually a former Senator from Tennessee so it's not *that* ridiculous) is now running at 21% likely to win the Republican nomination. For context Tradesports now says he is the second strongest candidate, ahead of John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Following in Schwarzenegger's footsteps? I would literally laugh out loud.

Dan's still holding out hope for a last minute entrance from Bill Gates. No lead time necessary for fund raising. I think he should probably first sneakily buy up the TV networks.